What holds back home sales in London, Ontario — and in markets across Canada — usually comes down to one thing: the gap between what sellers want and what buyers are willing to pay. Economists call this the bid-ask spread, and there are only three theoretical ways to close it: forced selling through a recession, a significant drop in mortgage rates, or price moderation. Of the three, price adjustment is consistently the most realistic and the most powerful lever — the math shows a modest price reduction does more to restore affordability than even a meaningful rate cut. Ty Lacroix, Broker at The Envelope Real Estate Group, has spent 24 years helping London sellers and buyers understand which lever actually moves their specific situation.
What stalls home sales in London, Ontario — and in real estate markets generally — almost always comes down to the same root cause: the spread between what sellers want for their home and what buyers are actually willing to pay.
When that gap is wide, listings sit. Buyers wait. Sellers wait longer, hoping the market comes to them. Economist Robert Kavcic describes this as a wide bid-ask spread that prevents a market from clearing — and the only durable fix is closing that gap. There are three theoretical ways to do it.
Three Ways to Close the Gap
Forced selling. A deep recession, rising defaults, and job losses would push sellers to accept lower prices out of necessity rather than choice. This is neither imminent nor a scenario anyone should want, but it's worth naming as one of the three theoretical paths, because it illustrates how serious the alternative — price adjustment — actually is by comparison.
A substantial drop in mortgage rates. A meaningful cut — on the order of a full percentage point — would restore buying power without requiring sellers to move on price. This path depends entirely on central bank policy and broader economic conditions outside anyone's control, and it has historically proven slow and unreliable as a fix for a stalled market.
Price moderation. Several major bank economists, including those at BMO and RBC, point to this as the most realistic and most effective lever. Moderating prices in various Canadian markets has, at different points, delivered some of the most meaningful improvements in affordability in years — pulling sidelined buyers back into active consideration.
The Math That Actually Matters
Here's the part most people get backwards: in almost any rate environment, price movement does more to restore affordability than a comparable rate cut.
Consider a $700,000 home purchased with 20% down, a 25-year amortization, and a typical mortgage rate. A 5% reduction in purchase price reduces the monthly payment by roughly $165. A quarter-point cut in the mortgage rate on that same home saves approximately $58 per month.
What this means for you: if you're a buyer waiting for rates to drop before you act, you may be waiting for a smaller benefit than the one already available through a well-negotiated price on a correctly positioned home today. Price is the lever that moves the needle — not the headline about what the central bank might do next.
Why This Matters Whether You're Buying, Selling, or Just Watching
The real estate market affects more than just buyers and sellers. Interest rates, population growth, and housing affordability affect tenants, landlords, the broader workforce, and the overall economic health of the city you live in — whether or not you personally have a transaction on the table.
If you're thinking of selling, the practical reality is straightforward: you have two real choices. Price to sell, or price to sit. There's no third option that avoids the bid-ask spread — only ways to be on the right or wrong side of it.
If you're thinking of buying, understanding this dynamic means you don't have to guess whether to wait for rates or act on price. The math above tells you which lever actually moves your monthly payment more.
If you're navigating both a sale and a purchase, the spread between what you can sell for and what you can buy for is what determines whether your move grows your equity position or erodes it. Understanding both sides of that spread — not just one — is what makes the difference.
The Bottom Line
The headlines focus on interest rates because rate announcements are easy to report on. But the math consistently shows that price — not rate — is the lever that actually unlocks demand and closes the gap between a home that sells and one that sits.
If you're trying to figure out where your specific situation falls within that spread — whether you're buying, selling, or both — that's exactly the conversation worth having.
Wondering whether to sell, buy, wait, or act? Reach out for a private conversation and let's look at where your specific situation sits in today's market. No pressure, no pitch.
