There is a lot of real estate pessimism about the London Ontario real estate market as a buyer’s market. Unfortunately, that pessimism is fed by the talking heads on TV or radio, the doom-sayers and the unwashed.

In an article The London Free Press and The National Post report that it is a buyer’s market.

There is no question that there are more homes for sale now than there were two years ago, and that some consumers are leery or unable to buy. I do not dispute that statement, as it is a fact!

Unfortunately, people love pessimism! Especially real estate pessimism!

Which headline would get more views?

•  Plane crashes. Or, 100,000 or more planes flew safely yesterday. I googled it.

• It is a buyer’s market. Or, 631 homes sold in London, close to 98% of the asking price!

• 5% unemployment rate. Or, 95% of Ontarians have jobs.

So, yes, buyers who have the DNA (desire, need, and ability) are not as plentiful. Some buyers are keen to buy, but one or two key aspects of the DNA are missing.

For buyers with the DNA, this is an excellent opportunity to buy, and for any seller with a high DNA, it’s a great time to sell.

I am a firm believer that action gets results; the nay-sayers, economists, and newspeople aren’t the ones who buy.

Houses and condos sell; they may take longer than in the past; however, the patient homeowner will prevail.

The Article

Timing the real estate market to sell or buy a house or a condo in London, Ontario is a guessing game. If anybody tells you differently, run, don’t sign anything!

The market doesn’t care when we want to sell or buy, which is why so many quality and well-located homes end up on the market longer, or, heaven forbid, unsold!

I learned a long time ago that there are things I can control and things I cannot, and the market is not in your or my control.

You are the market.

There may be five like you or a hundred, but they are not the market.

Since we can’t control what others think, feel, or do, we can control what we do. You control your mindset, the strategies you set, and the knowledge you have or think you have.

Circumstances happen.

• If you are a Snowbird and want to sell your place in Florida in 2025, you may face the situation of ten or more of your neighbours who also want to sell. You cannot control their motivation on price and risk, only yours. If you are committed to getting out, commit and pay the price.

• You decide to list your condo for sale at a price you feel is justified. A week later, another one gets listed for 15% higher or lower. What can you control?

• When interest rates were below 2%, you waited because you thought they would go lower. When they were 4.5%, too high, you waited, and on and on it goes. Merry-go-rounds are for children, not you.

• The most significant opportunity expense is time.

Yes, I am a Realtor and cannot control the market. Timing the real estate market is not in my realm of expertise. If I have an opinion, it is, in reality, a guess. What I can control is my work ethic, values, learning, adapting and patience.

Most of us have been in real estate denial at one time or another. At times, we confuse our situation or circumstances with problems. Bear with me a bit here, and in my simple way, try to explain.

 Is it a Situation or Circumstances?

• You don’t have enough money for a down payment; that’s your situation.

• Mortgage payments are too high; that’s a situation.

• You can’t find a house you like in the area you like with everything you want; that’s a situation.

• Your spouse, mate, children, parents, or dog don’t want you to move; that’s not a problem, that’s a situation.

• Your house is too big or too many stairs, but you love your garden and neighbours, that’s a situation.

• As a real estate investor, you can’t make any money; that is not a problem, that is a situation.

I am not being glib, but when most people say they have a problem, they either quit, sit on the fence, or deny themselves the right frame of mind. They get angry, blame someone else, criticize someone or everyone, and deny any responsibility for their situation. Albert Einstein said that if you use the same mindset that got you where you are now, it will not get you out!

The single parent who works two jobs, denying their comfort for their children, has a situation but is doing something about it, as is the young married couple, or the newly arrived family in Canada, saving and sweating for a better life, that is a situation because they are doing something about it and don’t see setting aside money every paycheque, busting their butts to feed their family as a ‘problem’ but an opportunity! They find a way, they don’t complain about their circumstances, they do something about it.

Stock market going down, your RSP taking a hit, that’s not a problem; it’s a situation, a circumstance that you have some control over, do something about it, and if you don’t know what to do, that’s on you!

Trying to lose ten pounds for the last ten years is not a problem; it is a situation. There are millions of articles on how to lose weight, so is it a problem or a situation? Or most people solve the situation by buying bigger pants!

Is the weather a problem? The temperature? Our government policies, local, provincial or federal? 

“You shouldn’t give circumstance the power to rouse your anger, for they don’t care at all.” Marcus Aurelius, Meditations

Note: If your situation or current circumstances elevate your commitment to improving your lifestyle for you and your family, isn’t that wonderful and better than denial of the truth?

Situations, circumstances, or so-called problems are not solved by sticking your head in the sand.

Who would you want representing and protecting your interests, a transactional or transformational Realtor in London Ontario?

What is transactional? Transactional means there is an expectation that if one gives, one will receive.  In the real world, in it for the money, not you.

What does transformative mean? Causing or able to cause a significant and lasting change in someone or something. Merriam-Webster. In the real world, it's in it for you and when you are successful, you get rewarded.

Transactional

It’s like going to a doctor’s office and saying you are not feeling well. The Doctor goes to a shelf and gives you four different pill bottles and says, “Take these. These will help.” Also, drink lots of water, stand on one leg, and whistle Dixie. If you are not feeling better, make an appointment in a month or so! The Doctor made little effort to know about you, your concerns, fears, and history or to listen.

There is no difference with a Realtor who will tell you anything and show you anything to get you to buy or sell.

Transformational

The Realtor, who takes the time to understand your wants, needs, fears, goals, and concerns, will not tell you what you want to hear, but will walk you through the process and ensure he or she protects you and your family.

Who will have your best interests at heart and be there for you during the process and after you move in? You may be surprised at the questions you may have after a transaction closes. Or the names of some tradespeople.

How will you know if a transactional or transformational Realtor? Or Lawyer? Home inspector or mortgage lender? Listen to your gut. Feel it in your bones. Give yourself some credit; you can tell the difference in a heartbeat!

Real estate fence-sitting in Canada seems like a pastime for anyone thinking of buying or selling a home. Why? Is it a buyer’s market or a seller’s market? Are prices too high? Are they unaffordable? Interest rates going up or down?

If Numbers Do Not Lie, Is It How The Numbers Are Created or Interpreted That Is Wrong?

I talk to buyers and sellers, Realtors, and mortgage brokers daily about the London, Ontario real estate market. At the end of most conversations, I ask, “Where did you get this information from?”

Now, perceptions of reality come to the forefront, reminding me of a quote from Miles Kington: “knowledge is knowing that a tomato is a fruit. Wisdom is not putting it in a fruit salad.”

• Opinions are not facts.

• Biases are not facts.

• Are perceptions facts? Beliefs? Emotions? A gut feeling? Social media? Dreamers?

Where Do The Real Real Estate Facts Come From?

• In London Ontario, The London Ontario St. Thomas Association of Realtors (LSTAR).

• For Canada and all the Provinces: Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).

• However, from the two above, the numbers are at least one to two weeks old and are history. What was, is, today?

• Your local Realtor, ONLY if he or she is in the market every day, talks to a minimum of 10 people a day about real estate and will tell you what is for sale today, what the prices are today, what sold today, and what did not.

Where Not To Base a Decision About Real Estate

• Social media.

• Your neighbours, your co-workers, your mechanic, your hairdresser, your pickleball friends or your golf friends.

• Economists.

• Provincial or Federal Government Forecasts.

• Bank of Canada Forecasts.

• Your financial advisor or pastor.

Now, you may think I am biased as I am a Realtor in London, Ontario. Nope, I am a realist. I know where most people get their advice, and when that advice is wrong, it is the real estate market’s or the Realtor’s fault.

In summary, real estate fence sitting could end up being a pain in the butt! Or not!

I started writing this blog post about real estate experts, but it kept getting longer and longer. It was about all the so-called experts, gurus, economists, relatives, hairdressers, etc.

Instead, I have enclosed some quotes that may help you distinguish between an expert and someone who talks like one!

• Mark Twain said kids provide the most interesting information because they tell all they know and then stop. Adults lose this skill and go on babbling!

• “The wise in all ages said the same thing, and the fools, who at all times form the immense majority, have in their way, too, acted alike, and done just the opposite!” Arthur Schopenhauer

• “Focus is the art of knowing what to ignore”. James Clear

• Using words to plead your case is risky business. Words put you on the defensive. If you must explain yourself, your power is already in question.” Robert Greene

• ‘If someone we know took traffic signals personally, we would judge them insane!” Ryan Holiday

• “A wealth of information creates a poverty of attention.” Herbert Simon

• “When two people believe opposite things, chances are that one of them is wrong.” Ray Dalio

Don’t get me wrong, there are experts in many fields; if I need heart surgery, I go to a heart surgeon, but I don’t ask her for real estate advice. My barber knows more about hair than I do. I don’t ask him about real estate advice or even listen.

I end with my two favourite sayings about real estate experts:

• “A rational person (realist) never leaves their interests at the mercy of any one person.” Ayn Rand

• “Big hat, no cattle!”

Everyone has an opinion about the real estate market in London, Ontario. There are the so-called gurus, economists, real estate appraisers, mortgage providers, Realtors, your dry cleaners, Uncle Bob, and the ever-present ‘they’!

How can you accurately tell what the real estate market in London, Ontario, is like now?

Most people think the price someone is selling or asking is an indicator; unfortunately, it’s not the best way to risk your hard-earned money! Or on interest rates or a time of the year.

Here are two indicators that correctly show the real estate market’s current state, not its future or potential.

Months of Inventory:

Months of Inventory quantifies the relationship between supply and demand. It is calculated by dividing the number of active home listings at the end of each month by the total number of home sales completed that month.

For example, if 100 active listings are available and 10 homes sold in the most recent month. Buyers can choose from approximately ten months of housing inventory. A healthy, balanced market will have 5 to 7 months of real estate inventory. Less than five months is a seller’s market, and more than five is a buyer’s market.

As of April 3, 2025, London, Ontario, and the area had 4.8 months of inventory (houses and condos for sale).

Absorption Rate:

The absorption rate reflects the balance between supply and demand. Divide the number of homes sold in a month by the number on the market. You will have a percentage that determines how quickly homes sell. An absorption rate above 20% indicates a seller’s market. An absorption rate below 15% is a buyer’s market.

As of April 9, 2025, our London St. Thomas Association of Realtors (LSTAR) reported 2066 active listings. So, take 508 homes sold divided by 2066 and get an absorption rate of 25%, a buyers’ market.

The facts and only the facts.

We, humans, tend to make choices emotionally!

Getting back to who you believe, I end this blog with a Mark Twain quote. “The difference between fiction and reality is that we expect fiction to make sense!”

Note: Caveats:

Absorption rates and inventory rates are practical measurements of the London, Ontario, real estate market, but practicality is useless when the observing eye knows more than the perceiving eye!

Example 1

“Ty, if a place ever comes up on _________________ street, let us know.” I did. The house was immaculate and priced $127,000 higher than any recent sale in the neighbourhood. We put in an offer, and two others did as well. Regardless, my client got it, and we paid over the asking price. It was ideal for their lifestyle and comfort zone.

We listed their home in an area with four comparable properties, with a $76,000 price difference among them. My client’s home sold in five days for full price.

Now, I could write that my skills and experience made it happen, but that would be b.s. My clients knew what they wanted, did not care about the market or what it would be, and acted with conviction. I was along for the ride!

Example 2

Three townhouses in an enclave of townhouses are almost identical in size, quality, and layout, and they have three prices: $590,000, $625,000, and $665,000. Guess which one sold? Guess which two are still on the market?

My Point?

Regardless of the market, everything will sell. It all comes down to perception and reality; eventually, one will rule!

When thinking about real estate in London, Ontario, is it the market, the trends, interest rates, buying or selling?

In one of the most outstanding financial books ever written, ‘The Richest Man in Babylon,’ George Clason writes that there are two kinds of study. The things we learned and knew, and the training that taught us how to find out what we did not know.

I read this book every year to refresh and remind myself of some basic financial concepts. While very simple and maybe too easy, many Canadians do not make wise financial decisions.

Educated or Wise?

Many well-educated people buy or sell real estate without knowing what they do not know when buying a house or a condo in London, Ontario.

“A degree on a wall means you’re educated, much as shoes on your feet mean you’re walking. It’s a start, but hardly enough.” Ryan Holiday

It is like a person complaining of a sore belly goes to their doctor and tells the physician that Dr. Google says it is blah blah blah! The kind physician ( the one not rolling their eyes or thinking, “Oh no, here we go again) will ask questions, identify the cause or the remedy and treat the problem.

In real estate, the same thing happens. Wise, intelligent people listen to what their neighbour or co-worker says, read “How to save thousands when buying real estate,” or watch all those reality shows and then become experts in buying a house or a condo.

As Joe Rogan wrote: “We live in a world today where it’s never been easier to be full of shit!”

Home sellers and their real estate representatives love you because you are the one who overpays for a home (yet brags that you got a good deal or became a complainypant) or finds out that the home has structural issues or a neighbourhood stigma.

In real estate, we do not have a Dr. Google, but we have everyone who has ever bought or sold a home as an expert on how to do so.

You may think money dictates your decisions; in some cases, you may be right. But about 85% of the time, decisions are emotional reactions to wants rather than needs!

Homeowners’ most pressing real estate conundrum is whether to buy or sell first. Whatever you do is a risk! It’s wise to know the risks upfront, not deceive yourself, and mitigate them.

“The truest way to be deceived is to think oneself more knowing than others.” La Rochefoucauld

If you sell first, you’ll have a closing date that you and the buyer agreed upon. Now, though, you are under the gun to buy a home because that date is looming. You don’t want to be homeless; are you going to rush? You might need more time to find the right home or neighbourhood at the right price and condition.

Be in Control

Like my clients, I like to be in the driver’s seat, so buying a home first is prudent. I know that’s uncomfortable and carries some risks; however, it makes sense if you have the right strategy. There will be no pressure to find a house on a specific date. You can speak with your lender in advance to secure bridge financing, which is often less expensive than you think. You may also be able to pay for the new property in cash, with less risk!

In the old days (7 years ago), you could make an offer with the condition that you sell your home first. Today, less than 2% of transactions have this condition. Regardless of bump clauses, today’s sellers want certainty, not hope or someday.

Once you have a firm offer on the place you want to buy, you put your home on the market. You have a closing date on your home and can now plan a strategy to sell. Being in control of your destiny is essential. I see many homebuyers rushing around, making rash decisions, and sometimes making the wrong moves. 

It’s prudent to have a strategy in place and know the outcomes you want.

“Risk is left over after you’ve thought of everything.” Carl Richards

In the face of distorted real estate perceptions, who is right? Who is wrong? Misled? Deceived?

When buying or selling a home in London, Ontario, you will encounter perceptions, beliefs, egos, greed, know-it-alls, and the unwashed!

“When two people believe opposite things, chances are that one of them is wrong,” Ray Dalio.

It involves buyers and sellers, Real Estate Agents, and, at times, home inspectors, appraisers, and lawyers.

Nonfiction Stories.

A home seller wants $850,000 for their house. The Realtor they choose or are related to says,” No problem.”   However, if the house remains on the market for an extended period or fails to sell, it may be because homebuyers and their Real Estate Agents believe the price is too high. Who is right?

Or the home seller receives an offer of $775,000, and both the seller and their Realtor feel insulted by the low offer, while the Realtor and their buyer feel their offer is appropriate. They go back and forth a few times, stubbornly negotiating the price or not knowing the market; neither the buyer nor the seller completes a transaction.

Or the home seller who wants $850,000 for their house, and the Realtor they choose says no; the price range is $795,000-$815,000. The home seller says no; I will find a Real Estate Agent who will list at my price. Now, who is right, the home seller, the Realtor who says yes, or the one who says no?

Real Estate Perceptions or Ego!

• A homeowner estimates that the roof has 10 years remaining before replacement is required. One home inspector says three years. One buyer thinks six years. They engage two roofing companies to obtain quotes. One estimate is that one year is left on the roof, and it should be replaced immediately for $19,600. The other estimate is that the roof is in good condition, with perhaps some caulking around the vents, skylights, and flashing, and that it should be suitable for another eight years. Who do you believe? In this case, the buyer wanted $20,000 off the price, but the seller declined, so back on the merry-go-round.

• The mortgage company’s home appraiser doesn’t think the house is worth what the buyer and seller agreed upon. Hence, the lender will not fund the mortgage unless the buyer makes a larger down payment or the seller reduces the price. Who is right?

• Two condos in a building sell within a month of each other. One lawyer reviews the status certificate and says, “OK,” whereas another lawyer reviews the status certificate and advises his clients to walk away. Who is right?

Is there a solution? No! If anyone tells you that there is, is that person correct? This is how distorted perceptions of real estate begin.

I leave you with one of the most straightforward and concise opinions regarding money by Morgan Housel.

“Every decision people make with money is justified by taking the information they have at the moment and plugging it into their unique mental model of how the world works.

Those people can be misinformed. They can have incomplete information, be bad at math, be persuaded by marketing, or misjudge the consequences of their actions.

Every financial decision a person makes makes sense to them in that moment and checks the boxes they need to check.”

So, at the end of the day, results don’t lie!

“It’s what you learn after you know it all that counts!” John Wooden

I sometimes wonder if people love real estate or furniture more! Do you love your dining room table as much as it loves you?

“This room will not fit my dining set”. Said a home buyer.

There is no dining room; where will I put my dining table, hutches, trays, Uncle Bob’s ashes, and my great-grandmother’s serving set? Said a buyer.

My extended-cab double-wheel base pickup will not fit in the garage, as a 141-pound weakling male stated as he huffed and puffed to climb into the monster.

The balcony is too small to accommodate my lawn furniture, umbrella, storage shed, and planter tables. Said a buyer.

These are only a few of the justifications homebuyers have given over the years. I get the need for memories and sentimental values. Will your dining set moan if you leave it behind, sell it or donate it?

Or the 300 boxes in your basement or garage that you have not looked at in years, but are saving?

Real estate or furniture, which one? All of the above was from people wanting to downsize to a smaller place in London, Ontario!

Oh, I was exaggerating the 141-pound weakling; it was a 237-pound macho who huffed and puffed.

Who or what decides the real estate market? The market does. A buyer or a seller might think so. Realtors, their clients, marketing gurus, and advertisers think they do, and the senior levels of the government think they do.

“Those who have knowledge don’t predict. Those who predict don’t have knowledge!” Lao Tzu

Pundits and economists profess that supply and demand dictate the real estate market.

Who is the market? What is the market?

The market is somewhere between expectations and reality.

The reality is what a motivated, willing, and capable buyer is willing to pay and what a motivated, willing, and capable seller is willing to sell for.

Not six months ago, not six months from now, but today. Tomorrow, who knows?

That adage ‘Location, Location, Location’ is now ‘Price, Desire, Location.’

Some constraints may inhibit a buyer or a seller, but it is not the market; it is a case of mistaken perceptions!

“Where is the knowledge that is lost in information? Where is the wisdom that is lost in knowledge?” T.S.Eliot

Just a thought!